Combining Remote Sensing and Species Distribution Modelling to Assess Pinus hartwegii Response to Climate Change and Land Use from Izta-Popo National Park, Mexico

A detailed analysis of distribution shifts in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. is provided across time for Izta-Popo National Park (México). Combining satellite images, species models, and connectivity we disentangled the effect climate change anthropogenic land use on habitat availability. Twenty-four Maxent suitability models with varying complexity were combined insights vegetation cover derived from two Landsat images at 30-m resolution 1993 2013. To evaluate effects Izta-Popo’s P. forest, projections future climatic conditions (averaged 2050 2070) using General Circulation Models under three Representative CO2 concentration pathways (RCPs). Calculated fragmentation indexes (Equivalent Connected Area Probability Connectivity metrics) showed significant loss that weakens dispersion flux strength connections. Projections a reduction as populations would have to migrate higher altitudes. However, impact documented over 20 years masks predicted Park.